Russia Macro monthly report by Chris Weafer, Senior Partner at Macro-Advisory Ltd in Moscow

Base jumping economics

  • Macro numbers reflect base effects. The macroeconomic numbers for January look better than December’s figures, but it is worth noting that the December data reflect the high base effect of December 2014. GDP is down ‘only’ 2.5%, against a 3.5% contraction in December, and inflation is below 10% versus 12.9% in December. Retail sales dropped 7.3% against a 15.4% contraction in December.
  • Government in austerity mode. The arguments over a crisis budget continue, and that situation is unlikely to change until the deadline of mid-April. Some money will be found to support lame-duck industries, but generally cuts in spending are the order of the day.
  • No intervention from the CBR. The Central Bank has again confirmed that it has not, and will not, intervene in the ruble market. Its policy is to let the ruble free float with the oil price and to preserve FX reserves. The value of reserves has risen by US$11 bln this year because of the 16% gain in the price of gold.

Vladimir Putin took part in the VII Chamber of Commerce and Industry Congress

1 March 2016, President Vladimir Putin spoke in front of the participants of the VII Chamber of Commerce and Industry Congress in Moscow.
Key topics of the Congress this year were development of small- and medium-sized companies in Russia, Russian companies' entry into foreign markets and ways of attracting investments. During his speech, President Putin underlined the importance of Chambers’ role in present economic situation and political climate:

"Today the Chamber of Commerce and Industry plays a major role as an instrument of ‘informal diplomacy’, as a venue for business contacts and for expanding economic cooperation between businesses in various countries. You are well known abroad, there are business councils and bilateral chambers of commerce and industry with a number of states. All this is a good cooperation infrastructure."

To read the full news, please follow the link to the Kremlin's official website 

Ulrich Kreuzenbeck passed away

Ulrick KreuzenbeckOur dear member and partner of cooperation for many years in Murmansk and Arkhangelsk, Mr. Ulrich Kreuzenbeck, unexpectedly passed away last week, after being hospitalized the last couple of weeks.
Ulrich was born in Germany, but came to Norway and worked within the tourism industry for many years. He was fluent in Norwegian, understood the Norwegian culture, and used his competence and enthusiasm for tourism development in the High North.

Russian Economic Developments - №2 - 2016


Please find enclosed recent survey "Russian Economic Developments" №2, 2016 prepared by experts of Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Moscow.

Core themes of the issue: Main political and economic events of January 2016 - Russia’s inflation and monetary policy in December 2015 - 2016–2017 Forecast: Russia’s recession continues - The Russian Stock Market in 2015: returns, liquidity and the drivers of change - The dynamics of Russia’s key stock-market indicators in January 2015 - Russia’s State Budget in January–December 2015 - Regions’ debt burden: awaiting budget loans - Savings behavior pattern: forget the currency - Russia’s real sector of the economy in December 2015: factors and trends - Russian industry in December 2015 - Russia’s foreign trade in November 2015 - Oil market: new reality - Mortgage in the Russian Federation in November 2015 - Turkish lessons: embargo-related risks - The demand for Russian science: as reflected in Russia’s strategic documents - The use of WTO legal instruments in Russia’s foreign economic relations - On a new version of the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation - New amendments to Russia’s privatization legislation: cosmetic measures or further deregulation? - The review of meetings of the Government of the Russian Federation in January 2016 - The review of Russian economic legislation in January 2016 - The review of Russian regulatory documents on taxation issues in December 2015 – January 2016 - The review of the Russian Federation base of the budgetary process in January 2016.


Download Russian Economic Developments - №2 - 2016

Working Group on Interregional and Cross-Border Cooperation of the Norwegian-Russian Intergovernmental Commission for Economic, Industrial and Scientific-Technical cooperation 

NRCC took part in the fourth session of the Working Group was held in Kirkenes, Norway, on 26 January 2016. The delegations were headed by State Secretary / Deputy Minister at Norwegian Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries, Dilek Ayhan, and by Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, AleksanderV. Tsybulskiy.

Please follow the link to download the document from the meeting. It should be of interest to many of NRCC members. 

IMG 3508


Russian Economic Developments - №1 - 2016


Experts of Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy present a survey "Russian Economic Developments" №1, 2016.

Core themes of the issue: Main political and economic events of December 2015 - Russia’s forex market: no panic outlook - Russian financial markets in December 2015 - Russia’s State Budget in January-November 2015 - Russia’s banking sector in November 2015 - Russia’s real sector of the economy in November 2015: factors and trends - Russian industry: optimistic tragedy - Russian metallurgy: the Rouble weakness alone does not suffice any longer 
- Russia’s foreign trade in October 2015 - Export-import: era of stagnation - Mortgage in the Russian Federation in November 2015 - Population’s income and consumer crediting is in the red - The review of the meetings of the Government of the RF in December 2015 - Changes in the regulatory base of the budgetary process in the December 2015 - The review of regulatory documents on taxation issues in November-December 2015.

Download Russian Economic Developments - №1 - 2016

Elnar Seljevold passed away at the age of 81.

Elnar Seljevold

It is with great sorrow that we received the news; Elnar Seljevold has put down his pen for the last time.

From 1955 till 1969 Seljevold worked as interpreter and assistant for Norwegian Border Commissioner, and took an active part in the development of Norwegian-Soviet relations. In 1965-1966 he became Director of Nordhandel AS, a trading company which existed to 1973 when the company was formally closed down. The initiative was the first attempt to develop traditional trade across the Norwegian – Soviet border in the High North. From 1977 till 1980 Elnar Seljevold worked as correspondent of the Norwegian Broadcasting Corporations (NBC) in Moscow, and from 1988 to 1990 Managing Director of NBC Ostfold.


The aim of the NRCC is to stimulate and improve business relations between Norwegian and Russian companies regarding import, export, shipping, business development, tourism or investment activities. More...


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