Russia Macro Monthly Report for November 2017: The calm before the … what?

Please find Russia Macro monthly report for November 2017, prepared by Chris Weafer, Senior Partner at Macro-Advisory Ltd from Moscow. 

weaferShort summary of the report: 

Economic advance continues. The economic recovery continues to strengthen and expand, albeit modestly. September GDP rose 2.4% YoY, bringing the growth for 9M17 to 1.8% YoY. The agriculture sector is a big driver, recording 8.5% growth in September (+4.7% YoY in 9M). There is also a stronger-than-expected recovery in retail sales.

Modest upgrades. Several agencies, such as the World Bank, IMF and Fitch, have modestly upgraded their forecasts for 2017-19. The Economy Ministry is the most bullish but still quite modest, with expected growth rising to 2.3% YoY in 2020.
Waiting for guidance. Uncertainty over the outlook for 2019 and beyond arises because of the lack of clarity over what will be the next government’s priority fiscal and industrial policies and who may lead the government.
Mixed confidence sentiment. The Business Confidence indicators are generally positive. But a separate report showed that businesses are becoming less inclined to commit to investment because of uncertainty beyond the medium term.
Sanctions threat. The 2 August law is promising a new list of sanctions targets (section 241) early in the new year. The recent sanctions clarification provided nothing new but shows the determination of US Congress to increase pressure on Russia.
Inflation and rates fall. Inflation continues to fall faster than expected and that should allow the Central Bank to cut its benchmark rate again in mid-December. But many of the contributors to the inflation fall are one-offs and CPI is expected to turn up again.
Ruble-oil correlation broken. The historic close correlation between oil and the ruble-dollar rate has now been broken because of the mechanism of the Fiscal Rule.
Russia is wary of rising oil. In this report we outline why Russia is more comfortable with oil below US$60/bbl, despite the extra tax revenues generated.
The loyal and irrelevant opposition. Kseniya Sobchak has generated a lot of international media attention with the announcement she will contest the March 2018 election. Polls show her only getting 1% of the vote with Putin expecting 65%. Putin is expected to deliver his annual televised Q&A in mid-December, even if the Federal Assembly Address is delayed to the new year.
Investors are also waiting. Despite the gain in oil and stalled and underperforming. Partly, this is because of the volume of new issues but mainly it is due to the number of uncertainties to be clarified. 

Download here the full report in PDF format.

NRCC Networking Meeting in Murmansk, 15 November 2017

On 15 November 2017, in connection with the VI Murmansk International Business Week, the NRCC networking meeting took place in the facilities of its member Hotel Park Inn Poliarnie Zori in Murmansk.

The meeting was productive, and NRCC appreciates members' enthusiasm and positive intentions to develop further bilateral cooperation.

Mr Jarle Forbord, NRCC Managing Director, opened the meeting by welcoming all the participants.

8

Mr Jarle Forbord, NRCC Managing Director, with the participants   

The expansion of the restrictive measures- 25 October, 2017

Dear NRCC members and partners,

Please find below the information regarding the expansion of the restrictive measures. The annoucement below and unofficial translation are provided by the Trade Representation of the Russian Federation in Norway.

Russia Responses on the Continuous Anti-Russian Sanctions by Extending Country’s Import Ban List

The Russian government has on October 25, 2017 extended the list of agricultural goods, raw materials and food products which are prohibited to import to the Russian Federation. 

The decision is made as a response to the continuous anti-Russian sanctions, and applies for the products originating from US, EU, Canada, Australia, Norway, Ukraine, Albania, Montenegro, Iceland, and Liechtenstein.

A political climate in the North gets tougher - Fiskeribladet from 25 October

Chair of the NRCC Board Liv Monica Stubholt in an interview to Fiskeribladet, "Fisheries will play a bigger role in the Norwegian foreign policy".

Please read the full version of the article here (in Norwegian).

img89

Liv Monica Stubholt, Chair of the NRCC Board . The picture is taken from Fiskeribladet  

Hub organizing of Norway visa application process in Russia

On October 24, during the NRCC networking meeting at Multiconsult, there was given a presentation by Mr Eirik Sandsten, Director of Services Department, Section for Immigration Affairs, Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, regarding the Norway visa application centres in Russia. As was mentioned, today there are 23 centers that are open in Russia.  

If you are interesting to get more information about how and where to apply for Norwegian visa, please follow the links below: 

http://www.norwayvisa-russia.com/English/index.html

https://www.norway.no/ru/russia/service-info/visa-residence/visitors-visa/#hand-in-doc  (In Russian)

https://www.norway.no/ru/russia/for-nordmenn/visum-opphold/besoksvisum/#lever-dok (In Norwegian)

NRCC administration. 

img13

Presentation of the Republic of Bashkortostan in Oslo - October 17, 2017

On October 17, during the Fourth Business Forum “Russian Regions” organized by the Trade Representation of the Russian Federation in Norway at the premises of the Russian Embassy in Norway, there was held a presentation about the Republic of Bashkortostan.

Bashkortostan takes the first place in Russia at the production of soda ash, gasoline, diesel fuel and auto-concrete pumps.The Republic has well-developed international business community. 

img12

About.

The aim of the NRCC is to stimulate and improve business relations between Norwegian and Russian companies regarding import, export, shipping, business development, tourism or investment activities. More...

Contact.

P.O. Box 557 Sentrum,
NO - 0105 Oslo, Norway

Phone: (+47) 21 01 57 50

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Connect!

Connect with NRCC.

ChamberWatch.

Please sign up for the latest news about the NRCC.

Utviklet av www.viis.no