Macro Advisory Eurasia- Russia Consulting 

Eurasian Union, September 2017 

Steady Progress. Progress in building the trade and legislative structures within the EaEU continues on a slow but steady course.This is as expected given the experience of how long it took the EU.

Gradual trade integration. The best KPI for EaEU progress is the share of intra-EaU for each member, although this is not perfect. Here there is also steady, but slow, growth.

No immediate expansion. There is no sign of any potential new members joining the five-country union over the medium term. The relationship with Uzbekistan is growing and the 30-million people country is expected to join eventually. Moldova gained observer status, but domestic politics will stop it joining. A free trade agreement with Iran should be signed this year.

Belt and Road will make a difference. This expanding rail network means that transport links across and in/out of the region are improving and trade is becoming easier and cheaper. That may be a power driver for growth in some areas in the future. Chinese companies are more interested in investing in rail infrastructure and in other projects along the transport corridors.

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