Russia Macro Monthly report for May 2017: Will sanctions threat damage the recovery?

Please find Russia Macro Monthly report for June 2017, prepared by Chris Weafer, Senior Partner at Macro-Advisory Ltd from Moscow. Short summary of the report:

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Congress pushes ahead with sanctions threat. The big elephant in the room, when it comes to longer-term growth in the economy is the threat of additional US sanctions. Now that the Senate has voted for tougher sanctions, attention will shift to the House of Representatives and then whether President Trump is willing or able to block a sanctions extension. If a tougher sanctions regime is adopted by the US, the EU is not expected to follow but Russia will almost certainly retaliate in some way.

Economic recovery on track. Q1 GDP growth was 0.5% which, according to the Economy Minister, was really 1.0% adjusted for the calendar effect. The IMF upped its forecast to 1.4% while the Economy Minister is hoping for 2%. Business sentiment indicators remain strong, and 1Q investment growth of 2.8% suggests hopes for a more robust recovery are justified.

Budget increase. As expected, and despite repeated denials from the Finance Ministry, the government plans to spend some of the additional oil tax revenue this year. It is election year after all.

Nabiullina points to more rate cuts. The CBR Chairwoman said that she expected rates to settle at around 6.5% when inflation was stable at 4%. Rates are currently 9.25% and inflation is 4%. The CBR is expected to cut by 25-50 bps at its mid-June meeting.

Ruble may soon weaken. There is a clear divergence between the CBR and government ministers over where the ruble should trade. But the recent period of strength may now be ending as oil weakens, the risk of further sanctions increases and the CBR cuts rates.

NRCC Annual Meeting and Summer Event on 13 June 2017

NRCC Annual Meeting took place on 13 June 2017 at Oslo Congress Centre. About 70 participants took part in the meeting. 

Mrs. Liv Monica Stubholt, the Chair of the Board of Directors of NRCC, opened the meeting and welcomed the participants. 

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Mrs. Liv Monica Stubholt, the Chair of the Board of Directors of NRCC

Mr. Dmitry Bystrov, the representative of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation, also has welcomed the participants of the Annual Meeting 2017.

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Mr. Dmitry Bystrov, the representative of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation

Mr. Jarle Forbord, the Managing Director of NRCC, has presented Auditor's and Annual Reports to the audience. 

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Mr. Jarle Forbord, Managing Director of NRCC 

Interactive Maritime Workshop on 31 May 2017

On 31 May 2017, Interactive Maritime Workshop was organized by Trade Representation of the Russian Federation in cooperation with the Norwegian-Russian Chamber of Commerce. The workshop took place in the facilities of Trade Representation of the Russian Federation. About 20 maritime companies took part in the meeting. 

Mr. Alexander Anikin, the Russian Federation’s Trade Representative to the Kingdom of Norway, together with Mr. Jarle Forbord, Managing Director of the NRCC, opened the meeting by welcoming all the participants.

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Mr. Alexander Anikin, the Russian Federation’s Trade Representative to the Kingdom of Norway

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Mr. Jarle Forbord, Managing Director of Norwegian-Russian Chamber of Commerce

Invitation to the Annual Meeting of the NRCC and the NRCC Summer Event 2017

Dear NRCC members and partners,

We hereby invite you to register for participation in the Annual meeting of the NRCC and NRCC Summer Event taking place on 13 June in Oslo. You can register for one or both of the events.

Annual Meeting

Agenda for the Annual meeting is enclosed. This year we also have the pleasure to announce an invited speaker, journalist and writer Øystein Bogen who will talk about the following topic:

“Norway and Russia are still cooperating within many sectors. But what must be done for Norway and Russia to re-establish their close friendship?”

 Date: 13 June 2017

Time: 17.00-18.00

Venue: Oslo Kongressenter – Folkets Hus, Youngs gate 11, Meeting room 3 (3rd floor).

Annual NRCC Summer Event

The event will take place on the very same day, 13 June on the roof terrace of Stratos bar – one of Oslo’s most popular event venues offering fantastic view over Norway’s capital. During the Summer Event there will be served a buffét-dinner and there will be time for refreshments and networking with other NRCC members and invited Norwegian and Russian guests. The Summer Event is a perfect opportunity to bring along business contacts who wish to learn more about NRCC activities and discuss opportunities and challenges related to the respective markets.

For more details please see Program for Annual Meeting and Invitation for Summer Event

 

Date: 13 June 2017

Time: 18.00-21.00

Venue: Stratos, Youngs torget 2, Oslo (Folketeatret-building)

Price per person is NOK 850.

Please, register for the Annual Meeting and Summer Event online. We look forward to your participation!

If you have any questions, please contact the NRCC administration at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .

The Energy Networking Event at TechnipFMC on 16 May 2017

14On 16 May 2017, the Energy Networking Event "International perspective on the Norwegian Continental Shelf" took place in Lysaker, in the facilities of the NRCC member organization TechnipFMC. About 70 participants took part in the meeting. The event was organized by TechnipFMC in cooperation with the Norwegian-Russian Chamber of Commerce (NRCC) and the French-Norwegian Chamber of Commerce (FNCC).

Mr. Igor Kopsov, Region Manager SURF Russia at TechnipFMC, together with Mr. Sindre Walderhaug, President of the Norwegian-French Chamber of Commerce (CCFN), and Mr. Jarle Forbord, Managing Director of the NRCC, opened the meeting by welcoming all the participants and presenting activities of their companies and chambers.

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Mr. Igor Kopsov, Region Manager SURF Russia, TechnipFMC

Protocol of the 17th session of the Norwegian-Russian Intergovernmental Commission for Economic, Industrial and Scientific-Technical Cooperation

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The 17th meeting of the Norwegian-Russian Commission for Economic, Industrial, Scientific and Technical Cooperation took place in Moscow on 20 April 2017. The meeting was chaired by Russian Minister of Natural Resources and Environment Sergei Donskoy and Norwegian Minister of Trade and Industry Monica Mæland. The two sides discussed the economic situation in Russia and Norway, the legal framework for bilateral cooperation, and prospects for interregional and cross-border cooperation.

Here you can download protocol of the meeting in Norwegian and Russian languages

Document in Norwegian

Document in Russian

Photo: Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs/Martine Røiseland

 

The High North Strategy 2017. Between geopolitics and social development.

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The High North Strategy has been presented in Bødo in North Norway, 21th of April 2017.

Today the Artic is Norway's most importnant foreign policy priority and according to the government.no above Strategy gives ‘an integrated approach to Arctic policy and focus more on knowledge-based business development and infrastructure in the North’. 

Also, in accordance with Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg ‘today growth in North Norway is higher than in the rest of the country and benefits Norway as a whole, and the Government will step up its overall efforts in the north, to make North Norway one of our most innovative and sustainable regions’. Mr. Brende pointed that ‘Norway will continue to play a leading role in the development and management of the Arctic. Despite the unrest in many parts of the world, we have managed to maintain the Arctic as a peaceful region, where cooperation is the norm. As Norway develops its Arctic areas, it will be vital for us to find ways of cooperating with our neighbours to deal with common challenges in the region. This is why we are investing heavily in international cooperation in the Arctic’. 

The High North Strategy 2017 gives a detailed overview of such topics as international cooperation, business development, Infrastructure, environmental protection, safety and emergency preparedness. Finally, the Strategy gives an overview over results of work of the Norwegian Government at the High North Region. 

Please download the full version ot the Strategy here (in Norwegian). 

 

 

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The aim of the NRCC is to stimulate and improve business relations between Norwegian and Russian companies regarding import, export, shipping, business development, tourism or investment activities. More...

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