Macro Russia: November recovery, or just more cold rain?
New issue of Macro Monthly by Macro-Advisory
The latest issue of Macro Monthly, produced by Macro-Advisory, offers analysis of the recent political and economical developments in Russia. Chris Weafer, founding partner of Macro-Advisory, was the invited speaker on the last NRCC Russia breakfast meeting in Oslo in October this year. November issue highlights the following key moments:
• Russia gains in World Bank survey. In a rare piece of good news Russia’s ranking in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business survey improved to 51 from 64 previously. That was partly because of changes to the survey methodology (expanded) and also because of improvements by Russia in such areas as the cost and time to access electricity supply.
• Small macro improvement in September. The macro indicators for September showed tentative improvements, and support the conviction that economic weakness bottomed in July-August. The expectation is that the fourth quarter data, which will start to appear this month, will show further improvement and support optimism for an end to the recession in mid-2016.
• Next rate cut depends on inflation. The Central Bank, as expected, did not cut its key rate at the end-October policy meeting. The bank cited concern over the continued high rate of inflation and external threats, such as oil price uncertainty and the consequences of a slowing Chinese economy for global markets.