V Murmansk International Business Week (MIBW) to be held on November 14-18, 2016

Business week 2016The Government of the Murmansk region invites partners to the V Murmansk International Business Week (MIBW). The event will be held on November 14-18, 2016. It is a part of the calendar of the Russian Chairmanship in the Barents Euro-Arctic Council in 2015-2017. The V MIBW program includes a number of activities aimed at the development of interregional and international cooperation, business and entrepreneurship, support for science and education.

The central event will be the V MIBW plenary session "Arctic course". The prospects of development of international and cross-border cooperation in the Arctic, the draft federal law "On the development of the Arctic area of the Russian Federation" will be discussed within the plenary session.

The participants are representatives of the Arctic Council countries, the regions of Arctic area of the Russian Federation, the federal bodies of executive power of the Russian Federation and foreign partners interested in project development in the Arctic region.

The structure of the V MIBW program and additional information (in English and Russian languages) is available on the web-site https://minec.gov-murman.ru/activities/week/info_foreign_participants/

Russia Macro monthly report by Chris Weafer, Senior Partner at Macro-Advisory Ltd in Moscow

weafer Photo 13

Does June's GDP gain mark recovery or just the eye of the economic storm?

GDP finally positive, albeit just. June GDP grew 0.1% YoY, the first positive number for some time. Industrial output rose 1.7% YoY. Retail and construction continue to drag, but less than in 2015.

No major forecast changes. We have raised the probability for our base-case economic scenario for 2016-18 to 55% but see no reason to change any of the key forecasts.

Business confidence stays strong. Official and private business confidence indicators are in expansionary territory. The PMI services indicator is at its highest level since 2013. Survey respondents said that new business was the main driver.

Wages and unemployment look good. Real wages are up 1.4% YoY, and unemployment fell from 5.6% to 5.4%. However, real disposable incomes are down almost 5% YoY as at mid-year.

Inflation ticks negative. Inflation for the last week of July was down 0.1% due to seasonal food prices. Full year inflation has been stubbornly close to 7.3% for the past four months. The CBR, as expected, kept rates on hold at its July meeting.

Ruble did not fall with weak oil. Brent fell 14.5% in July, but the ruble conceded only 3%. That is mostly because the ruble did not rally with oil in the preceding months.

Oil looks to be range bound. The price of Brent looks set to trade in a range of US$44 to US$54 per barrel, with US shale producers now the swing producers. Saudi Arabia and Iran continue to boost output.

Russian Economic Developments - №7 - 2016

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Experts of Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy present a survey "Russian Economic Developments" №7, 2016.

Core themes of the issue:

- Macroeconomic forecast for 2016–2018: the economy is passing through the lowest point of the current crisis;
- Monetary policy of the Russian Central Bank: risks and limitations;
- There are no preconditions for the investment growth in Russia;
- Fixed capital investment in Q1 2016;
- The Russian economy in expectation of growth;
- Oil sector: potential for tax incentives;
- Russian exports to the EU: a general decline with mixed trends;
- “Anti-turkish embargo”: who lost the most?;
- Trade restrictions hamper world trade growth;
- Population’s social sentiment, Q2 2016;
- Brexit results: macroeconomic risks;
- Brexit and trade and economic relations between Russia and the UK;
- Post-brexit Britain: its relations with the EU and its future in the framework of multilateral institutions.
 

NRCC Annual report 2015, the NRCC Annual accountancy report and the auditor’s report for 2015

Annual Report 2015Dear members and partners of NRCC,

Enclosed please find the NRCC Annual report 2015, the NRCC Annual accountancy report and the auditor’s report for 2015.

We thank you all for active participation during 2015 in a challenging period in our bilateral economic relations.

We look forward to revive bilateral commercial discussions during this year’s V Norwegian – Russian Business Forum on 26 October 2016 in the facilities of the Confederation of Norwegian Enterprises in Oslo. We are presently compiling the program content, which will be listed on the website of V NRBF, www.nrbf2016.com

Keep yourself updated after summer holidays about program content, and remember to save the date already today!

We wish you all a relaxing summer holiday, and are looking forward to seeing you soon again!

Please download here the NRCC Annual report 2015, the NRCC Annual accountancy report and the auditor’s report for 2015 in PDF format.

NRCC administration.

VI annual International Conference in Murmansk "Mining Industry in the Barents Euro-Arctic Region: View to the Future” (IMIC BEAR-2016)

Specialists are kindly invited to participate in the VI annual International Conference "Mining Industry in the Barents Euro-Arctic Region: View to the Future” (IMIC BEAR-2016) which will take place in Kirovsk Town, Murmansk Region, Russia on the 17 – 18 of November 2016. The Conference Topic: «Innovations in Mining Industry & Competitiveness of Mining Companies».

The Barents Euro-Arctic Region is a strategically important sector of the Arctic, rich in natural resources, which possesses a considerable technological, scientific potential and human resources. Rich experience in the environmental anagement in the conditions of sub-arctic climate defines status of the Barents Region as a leader in the development of mineral resources of the continental part of the Arctic. Innovations are the key factors influencing the global competition and the development of a mining company in market conditions. To make the mining industry more efficient, the following is necessary:

  • Use of modern, efficient, powerful and cost-effective equipment;
  • Implementation of new technologies in mining and processing of minerals;
  • Development of human resources of mining enterprises

The Conference is held in the framework of the V Murmansk International Business Week under the auspices of the Nonprofit Partnership “Russian Mining Operators” and with support of the Government of Murmansk Region.

Organizers of the Conference:
- Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation
- Government of the Murmansk Region
- Kola Science Center of the Russian

Please find more detailed information in the invitation letter, which can be downloaded here.

What does Brexit mean for Russia?

No direct or immediate implications for Russia. The UK’s decisions to leave the EU will have no direct impact on the Russian economy over the short term. However, the uncertainty created by the decision will unsettle global markets for years and that will have indirect consequences for all developing economies. 

Relatively insulated from any negative contagion. After two years of adjusting to sanctions and the lower oil price, the Russian economy and the ruble are relatively well insulated from further weakness even if growth in the UK and or the EU slides on the back of the UK exiting the union and the uncertainty that created.

Oil price not vulnerable to EU weakness. The price of oil is not particularly vulnerable to economic weakness in the EU – the bigger factors driving the oil price include Chinese and Asian growth, the trend in the supply from North American shale projects and from Iran plus the risk of further outages in Nigeria or the Middle East. EU oil usage has fallen by an average of 1.7 million barrels per day since 2007, while usage in China and other Asian countries has risen by almost 7 million barrels per day in the same period.

CBR will limit currency volatility. The ruble fell as a result of the vote but only in line with the shift in investor sentiment to all EM currencies and in line with the oil price dip. The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) should be easily able to contain any volatility given the low level of investor involvement in Russia’s capital markets.

Weak sterling opens opportunities for UK businesses to compete in Russia. Sterling’s weakness against the euro (down 20% over the past six months) creates opportunities for UK exporters to take market share in Russia from EU competitors. While the Kremlin’s priority is to push localization as a new growth driver, there are clear opportunities in such areas as e-commerce, equipment supply, and services.

Brexit may weaken sanctions resolve in the EU. There is no basis to assume that Brexit will have any near-term impact on sanctions. But the UK has been a strong supporter of tough sanctions and that resolve may now weaken as, a) London becomes distracted by the unwinding process, b) it will have new leadership with different priorities, and c) the UK looks for new export markets to develop.

EU will renew sectoral sanctions for another 6 months. It is expected that the sectoral sanctions will be fully renewed in July but only for six months. The next renewal will then take place during the interval between the US presidential election and inauguration day. Given that the decision on US sanctions is under the remit the president and not Congress and that the White House consistently reminds that the sanctions are scalable, there is now a growing hope for some easing of financial sector sanctions in early 2017.

Sanctions dissatisfaction is growing in any event. In any event, Chancellor Merkel is facing growing pressure from within her coalition government, from German industry and from other EU countries, most notably Italy, to agree to the start of a process to unwind sectoral sanctions.

No macro forecast changes. We see no reason to adjust our medium-term macro forecast models as a result of Brexit or the expected contagion from the vote. We remain confident of our Base Case assumptions.

--

Chris Weafer
Senior Partner
Macro-Advisory Ltd
Moscow
+ 7 916 349 2039

New export certificates for fish are required

Norwegian Food Safety Authority (Mattilsynet) informs that as from 01 June 2016, new export certificates for fish are reqired for export to member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia). Information about the new requirements was forwarded to the Norwegian authorities in the beginning of May 2016 by Russian veterinary authorities. The Norwegian Food Safety Authority requested to prolong the validity of "old" certificates during the transition period, but the request remains unanswered as for June 2016. Read more at www.mattilsynet.no (in Norwegian only).

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